Powerball and Mega Millions look almost identical from the outside. Under the hood, their odds and payout structures differ enough to matter — a little. Here’s the honest comparison with current numbers.
The odds, side by side
Both games ask you to match five main numbers plus one bonus ball, but from different pools, so the jackpot odds aren’t the same. Neither is anywhere near winnable on a single ticket.
| Powerball | Mega Millions | |
|---|---|---|
| Main pool | 5 from 69 | 5 from 70 |
| Bonus ball | 1 from 26 | 1 from 24 |
| Jackpot odds | 1 in 292,201,338 | 1 in 290,472,336 |
| Ticket price | $2 | $5 |
| Draw nights | Mon / Wed / Sat | Tue / Fri |
Mega Millions’ jackpot odds are now slightly better than Powerball’s — but the difference between 1-in-292-million and 1-in-290-million is a rounding error next to “essentially zero.” Don’t choose a game on that gap alone. (For where those numbers come from, see our Powerball odds breakdown.)
The 2025 Mega Millions overhaul
In April 2025, Mega Millions changed substantially, which is why old comparisons are out of date. The ticket price rose from $2 to $5. The Mega Ball pool shrank from 25 to 24, nudging the jackpot odds from the old 1-in-302,575,350 down to 1-in-290,472,336. A random multiplier of 2× to 10× is now built into every ticket at no extra cost, and starting jackpots are larger. So a Mega Millions ticket costs more but carries a built-in multiplier that Powerball charges extra for.
What actually separates them
- Ticket price and multipliers differ, which changes the expected value per dollar — Powerball’s Power Play is a paid add-on; Mega Millions bakes its multiplier in.
- Jackpot size on any given night matters more than which game it is — the bigger current jackpot usually has the better raw expected value, before split risk.
- Player volume shifts with jackpot size, and more players means more split risk on a win.
Don’t forget the schedule
Because Powerball draws Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday while Mega Millions draws Tuesday and Friday, on most nights only one of them is even drawing. Often the practical question isn’t “which game” but “is tonight’s jackpot big enough to bother” — which is really a question about when a ticket is worth it.
The practical answer
Don’t pick a game — pick a night. On any given draw, plug both games’ current jackpot, ticket price, and estimated ticket sales into the expected-value tool and compare the honest, split-adjusted numbers. Usually they’re both negative; occasionally one is meaningfully less negative than the other.
The honest takeaway
- Jackpot odds are near-identical: 1 in 292.2M (Powerball) vs 1 in 290.5M (Mega Millions).
- Mega Millions costs $5 with a built-in multiplier; Powerball costs $2 with a paid one.
- The bigger current jackpot, not the brand, drives the better expected value on a given night.